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Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Deserves to Win & Was Snubbed

Oscar Predictions 2014

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#1 Troy

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 03:44 PM

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The Envelope Please: Who Will Win, Who Deserves to Win, Who Was Snubbed

by Kam Williams

 

12 Years a Slave is benefiting from the most Best Picture buzz as we approach Oscar night, although this is shaping up as one of those rare years when the award for Best Director will probably go to a different film, Gravity. Look for 12 Years to net only a trio of statuettes overall, with Gravity likely landing seven.

 

12 Years a Slave is the sort of elaborate historical drama the voters just love to recognize, as reflected in such past picks as The King’s Speech, Gladiator, Shakespeare in Love, Titanic, The English Patient, Schindler’s List, Driving Miss Daisy, The Last Emperor, Amadeus and Out of Africa, to name a few. And since the Anglophilic Academy ostensibly is impressed by English accents, it will also help that 12 Years is a British production.     

 

Besides forecasting the winners, I also suggest which nominees in each category is actually the most deserving. Furthermore, because some great performances are invariably overlooked by the Academy entirely, I also point out some who should’ve at least been nominated.

 

The 86th Academy Awards will air live on ABC this Sunday, March 2nd at 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT, and will be hosted by Ellen DeGeneres.   

 

Best Picture    

 

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Deserves to Win: 12 Years a Slave

Overlooked: Lee Daniels’ The Butler

 

Best Director

 

Will Win: Alphonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Deserves to Win: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Overlooked: Lee Daniels (The Butler)

 

Best Actor

 

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Deserves to Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Overlooked: Forest Whitaker (The Butler)

 

Best Actress

 

Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Deserves to Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Overlooked: Sharni Vinson (You’re Next)   

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

Will Win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Deserves to Win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Overlooked: Harrison Ford (42)

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)   

Deserves to Win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Overlooked: Maria Bello (Prisoners)

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

Will Win: Spike Jonze (Her)  

Deserves to Win: David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer (American Hustle)

Overlooked: Aaron Guzikowski (Prisoners)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

Will Win: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Deserves to Win: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Overlooked: Danny Strong (The Butler)

 

Predictions for Secondary Categories

 

Animated Feature: Frozen

Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (Italy)

Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom

Cinematography: Gravity

Costume Design: The Great Gatsby

Production Design: The Great Gatsby

Film Editing: Gravity

Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club

Original Score: Gravity

Best Song: Let It Go (Frozen)

Sound Editing: Gravity

Sound Mixing: Gravity

Visual Effects: Gravity

 

 

See a list of nominees


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#2 Troy

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 03:50 PM

I have not seen Dallas Buyers Club I try to check that film out next. 

 

I still think Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom should have been in the mix.  If was my personal favorite film of 2013 -- even edging out Star Trek ;-)


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#3 Troy

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 09:26 AM

Well Kam got them ALL right this year!  I was gonna use his picks to enter a contest or two but never got around to it.

 

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#4 Cynique

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 12:34 PM

Me, myself, I'm glad all the Oscar hoopla is over. It was getting tiresome. I was especially bored with Lupita's (whatever her last name is) over exposure, modeling an endless display of high-priced designer dresses that went so well with her high top fade hair style. Back in 1939, Hattie McDaniels won best supporting actress for playing a slave mammy in Gone With The Wind". In 2014 an African actress wins this award for playing a slave in another epic movie. Ah, the irony.  Grade school-educated Hattie was descended from slaves. Yale graduate, Lupita is descended from slave traders. Whoopi!  (Yea, Ms. Goldberg was there, too, looking like the flip side of Lupita's coin.)

 

FaceBook was bristling with black women rejoicing over this win.  Why? I don't know.  Didn't a black actress just win as supporting Oscar for playing a maid in "The Help" 2 years ago?  Didn't Monique also just win one before that for playing a negligent ghetto momma?  The idea that black women should be rejoicing over the latest awardee whom they presumably regard as an inspiring role model, brings out the cynicism that just keeps rearing its ugly head on my horizon.  I like my role models more authentic, and a littlle less frivolus. Which proves, of course, that I am out of step.  I didn't realize black women felt so neglected, considering the eye-rolling, booty shakin, hip-grindin dancer who serves as our first lady. Go, on, Girl.

 

I haven't seen any of the nominated pictures, but I'm glad "12 Years a Slave" won.  It kinda neuturalizes all the accolades the movie about Lincoln received last year.   I thought host Ellen Degenerate did a decent job of reminding us how unremarkable these proceedings really are.  Somebody should give her an Oscar for her portrayal of a man.  I could go on and on but I would once again be violating my new year's resolution to stop being so negative.  BTW, Sidney Poiter looked how I imagined that man in the  news who came back to life, kicking off his body bag just as the mortician was getting ready to start embalming him.  Louis Gossert, Jr.,  where are you when we need you?  Poor ol  Kim Novak, who's the same age as me, looking all bewildered in her JC Penney pants suit, while few people in the audience even remembered her or what a hottie she was back in the day   I know the feeling.  Bye-bye.  I'm done.      :P



#5 Troy

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 07:47 PM

Vintage Cynique! :D

 

Here is Kam's, slightly more PC recap:

 

2014 Oscar Recap By Kam Williams
12 Years a Slave Lands Best Picture Yours Truly Scores 100% on Oscar Picks   
            
12 Years a Slave walked away with big prize, Best Picture at the 86th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday. The historical drama was directed by Steve McQueen and also netted accolades in the Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) and Adapted Screenplay (John Ridley) categories. Dallas Buyers Club also won a trio of Oscars, although Gravity landed the most overall, at seven.   

The event was hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, who did a phenomenal job of loosening up the crowd with bits ranging from ordering pizzas for the audience to taking a group selfie with some of the celebs in attendance. Her good-natured brand of humor was not only hilarious but seemed tailor-made for the occasion.     

The acceptance speeches were uniformly gracious, with both Lupita Nyong’o and Jared Leto’s proving to be particularly moving. Perhaps the only one with a glaring faux pas was Cate Blanchett, who inexplicably went out of her way to thank Woody Allen at a time when he’s being shunned by polite society because of his daughter Dylan’s recent allegations that he’d molested her as a child.

As far as this critic’s Oscar handicapping, faithful readers who relied on my predictions in their office pools were richly rewarded since all 21 of my picks were correct.

 

###

 

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#6 Troy

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 07:54 PM

I have to admit the selfie is pretty cute.  But I definitely was not one of the 3 million plus saps twitterers who retweeted it.  I'm not feeding into the free publicity for Twitter -- please.  I HAVE to believe money exchanged hands for the publicity stunt.

 

I know pedophiles can't help themselves but my God I had to idea Woodie (pardon the pun) was still molesting children.  I saw him walking down the street once he looks nuts!


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#7 Troy

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:03 AM

Big Up to John Ridley for his win.

 




 


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#8 Troy

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:25 AM

All I was trying to do was find a better photo of John Ridley to use on the site (could not find a publicity still) but I did manage to find tons of articles describing the alleged feud between Steven McQueen and John Ridley.  Google makes me sick...


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#9 Cynique

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 01:01 PM

The Hollywood crowd is very supportive of Woody Allen, apparently believing that tests administered to his 7-year old adopted daughter at the time proved inconclusive and raised suspicions that she had been coached by her mother.  Once again the rumors cropped up after this now grown daughter recently came forward to again accuse Woody because she was angered that he was honored by the Golden Globes for his body of work. But another adopted child defended Woody claiming Mia was an abusive erratic mother who taught all the kids to hate Woody because she's never forgiven Allen for taking up with another daughter she and second husband, Andre Previn adopted before she and Woody even hooked up. Incidentally Mia and Woody were never married.  Allen and Mia's adult adopted daughter are now wed and have 2 adopted daughters. 

 

 

John Ridley conspicuously thanked everybody but Steve McQueen in his Oscar acceptance speech.  These 2 apparently fell out because Ridley wouldn't agree to have McQueen listed as co-author of the screenplay just because he was the director of the movie. In the pop culture world, this is fertile dirt.  That's show biz.  



#10 Troy

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 06:22 AM

Sooo are you saying Woodie Allen is a not a degenerate and that Mia Farrow is more nuts than Woodie?  I have not been following their story, just hearing incomplete sensational pieces here and there.  It would be a shame if Woodie is a complete victim of Mia and the press.


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#11 Cynique

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 01:05 PM

I can't really say, because the truth probably lies somewhere between the two opposing sides.  But, traditionally, Hollywood is very tolerant of those who they perceive to be genuises, giving great weight to their artistic temperament and eccentricities. They reacted the same way to Roman Polanski, a brilliant director, who was accused of statutory rape for seducing a young teen aged girl.  Also Charlie Chaplin. Woody Allen has had numerous relationships with adult women, most notably Diane Keaton, and is now married and has 2 children whom he is presumably not molesting.  Mia Farrow has always been perceived as flaky.  She was the precursor of Angelina Jolie.  She adopted about 12  children from different countries many of whom were disabled.  But as one of her adopted sons claimed, their household was a chaotic zoo and Mia who had a fiery temper was in over her head when it came to mothering skills.  Bottom line, who really cares?  I don't why I even bother to post all of this. 

 

The friction between Ridley and McQueen is more salient.   Interdispersed throughout the dreaded Facebook posts are links to different articles about this feud, one of which was written by a sister who took Ridley to task for his history of being hypercritical of his race, saying "niggas" bring on a lot of their troubles by their inexcusable behavior.  Kind of a sanitized version of  the comedy litany Chris Rock did in his routine distinguishing "niggas" from "Blacks". 

 

Another "take-away" for me, after the Oscar proceedngs, is that black actresses are pretty much gaining a lock on the supporting role category, as long as they play maids and slaves and other demeaning characters.  And when all is said and done, implicit in all the heartfelt speeches of black winners is a "thank ya, boss, I sho is glad y'all white folks gimme dis validation.  Now I is truly worth somethin," vibe. :D      



#12 Troy

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 01:51 PM

Yeah Kam wrote about Ridley's article "The Manifesto of Ascendancy for the Modern American Nigger" Esquire Magazine, December 2006, Volume 146, Issue 6

 

"We get a good idea of exactly why the untalented Mr. Ridley, a failed stand-up comic, is an advocate for the epithet in his Esquire article where he makes liberal use of the patently-offensive term. Repeatedly referring to impoverished blacks as "niggers," because of the high unemployment, incarceration and out-of-wedlock birth rates in the 'hood, he never once pauses to reflect on the exploitative and marginalizing societal forces which have consciously collaborated to strand the bulk of the black community in a virtually-inescapable cycle of inhumane living conditions for generation after generation."

 

I don't know if Kam's view of Ridley's talent has softened but Kam clearly disagreed to with Ridleys position on the use of the N-word and other issues.

 

The other thing I noticed and reads a few comments about is how all of the Black mean that won are not married to Black woman.  Neither Ridley or McQueen's are married to sisters. 

 

When you consider their marriage partners and the silly beef they have between to each other, despite the great success, it really does give much more credence to the crab-in-the-barrel mentality often ascribed to Black people.  Put another way Black people simply do not like other Black people.

 

I'm not trying to exaggerate with that last statement.  If we do like each other, as a group of people, we have a weird way of showing it.


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