Oscar Predictions 2015: Who Deserves to Win & Who Will be Snubbed

[Troy]

Oscar Predictions 2015

 

Who Will Win, Who Deserves to Win, Who Was Snubbed

by Kam Williams

           

While Selma’s Academy Awards stock plummeted in the wake of allegations of historical inaccuracies, that of American Sniper simultaneously skyrocketed, thanks to both booming box-office returns and very positive word of mouth. However, Sniper probably had too much ground to make up to catch Birdman, the early favorite in the Best Picture sweepstakes.

 

I envision Birdman garnering 4 awards overall, followed by The Grand Budapest Hotel, with 3. The only other multiple winners will likely be Boyhood, Whiplash and The Theory of Everything, at 2 each.     

 

Faithful readers will remember that a year ago, yours truly accurately predicted the results in 21 of 21 categories (I skipped the short films), so anyone who used my picks in their office pool fared pretty well. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

Besides forecasting the winners below, I also suggest which nominees are the most deserving. Furthermore, because some great performances are invariably overlooked by the Academy entirely, I also point out those who should’ve been nominated.

 

The 87^th Academy Awards will air live on ABC this Sunday, February 22^nd at 8:30 PM ET.

 

Best Picture    

 

Will Win: Birdman

Deserves to Win: Selma

Overlooked: Nightcrawler

 

Best Director

 

Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Deserves to Win: Ava Duvernay (Selma)

Overlooked: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

 

Best Actor

 

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Deserves to Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Overlooked: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

 

Best Actress

 

Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Deserves to Win: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Overlooked: Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Deserves to Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Overlooked: Rick Garcia (Nightcrawler)

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Deserves to Win: Emma Stone (Birdman)

Overlooked: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)   

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo (Birdman)

Deserves to Win: Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)

Overlooked: Paul Webb (Selma)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

Will Win: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)

Deserves to Win: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Overlooked: Peter Landesman, Gary Webb and Nick Schou (Kill the Messenger)

 

Predictions for Secondary Categories

 

Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Foreign Language Film: Ida

Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

Cinematography: Birdman

Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Film Editing: Boyhood

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score: The Theory of Everything

Best Song: Glory (Selma)

Sound Editing: American Sniper

Sound Mixing: Whiplash

Visual Effects: Interstellar

[Troy]

I saw two of the movies listed above I saw Interstellar, which was pretty good, and The Grand Budapest Hotel, which I thought was a silly movie (I did not care for it), but I can see it winning for production and costume design.

 

I did not see very many films this year.  In fact the only "top Black film" I saw this year was Dear White People, and I just watched that this month.  I do want to see Selma, before it leaves the theaters.

[Delano]

Here are my Predictions I haven't seen any of the movies nor do I know what they are about. I just checked the synopsis and the chart. I'll also post this in Predicting the future using Divination.

 

 

Best Picture Birdman

 

Best Actor Benedict Cumberbatch

 

Best Female Actor Reese Witherspoon

 

Best Supporting Actor Robert Duvall

 

Best Supporting Female Actor Keira Knightley

 

Best Animated Feature film Song of the sea

 

Best Director Morton Tyldum

[Troy]

Interesting Divination versus Pragmatism which will prove more accurate  

[Del]

Well I'd go with pragmatism I haven't seen any if the movies and I used the synopsis. The only agreement is Birdland. This is a bit challenging because I have to decide which has preference the film or the person. So it is an interesting excercise. The next award show I will list my top three picks so I can improve. I have to say this was harder than a straight delineation. Although Birdman is the standout fir best picture. Then the one with Benedict Cumberbatch and finally the one with Steve Carell.

[Troy]

Kam is pretty really good at picking which films will win.  Last year he correctly picked all 21 films in the categories above.  So if your picks come to pass you may be on to something.

[Delano]

It's my first time using it for competition. It's actually harder most questions. I'll see how I go. I may try it again for the next awards show.

[Troy]

The following is Kam's recap, of the Oscars.  As you might image I had zero interest in this broadcast.  Far and away the most interesting thing to me is how Del's picks compared to Kam's

 

-----------------------

 

Oscar Recap 2015 by Kam Williams            

 

Birdman Soars over the Competition!  Evening Marked by a Profusion of Political Acceptance Speeches      

           

Birdman won Best Picture at the 87^th annual Academy Awards on a night periodically punctuated by politically-conscious acceptance speeches. That film and The Grand Budapest Hotel tied for the most wins, 4, followed by Whiplash with 3, and Boyhood with 2.

           

There weren’t any upsets in terms of the major categories, with Julianne Moore (Still Alice) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) prevailing in the lead acting categories, as expected, as well as J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) and Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) in supporting roles.

           

The evening was emceed by Neil Patrick Harris, who went out of his way to draw attention to the diversity among the celebrities in attendance, but only after joking that “Tonight we honor Hollywood’s best and whitest, I mean brightest.” This was obviously in response to complaints about Selma being snubbed and all the acting nominees being white.

 

Ostensibly to make amends, Neil awkwardly enlisted the assistance of Oprah Winfrey, David Oyelowo and Octavia Spencer to perform as his straight men, even returning to Octavia again and again as the butt of a running joke which unfortunately fell flat every time.

The Academy took a posthumous potshot at the late Joan Rivers, getting the last laugh by leaving her out of the “In Memoriam” montage featuring photos of recently-deceased showbiz legends. The veteran comedienne might not have had much of a career as an actress, but she certainly established herself later in life on the red carpet where she would flourish as a sharp-tongued, fashion critic.

           

From the very first acceptance speech by J.K. Simmons who suggested people pick up the phone and call their parents and tell them you love them, it seemed that every winner had a political agenda, with causes ranging from suicide prevention (Graham Moore) to equal pay for women (Arquette) to immigration reform (Alejandro González Iñárritu) to Lou Gehrig’s disease (Redmayne) to Alzheimer’s (Moore) to privacy (Citizenfour director Laura Poitras) to the African-American incarceration rate (John Legend).

 

A galvanizing moment arrived during rapper/actor’s Common’s heartfelt remarks delivered while accepting the award for Best Song, “Glory,” with John Legend. Common eloquently put a universal spin on the legacy of the historic Selma march, stating:

“I’d like to thank God that lives in us all. Recently, John and I got to go to Selma and perform ‘Glory’ on the same bridge that Dr. King and the people of the civil rights movement marched on 50 years ago. This bridge was once a landmark of a divided nation, but now is a symbol for change. The spirit of this bridge transcends race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, and social status. The spirit of this bridge connects the kid from the South side of Chicago, dreaming of a better life to those in France standing up for their freedom of expression to the people in Hong Kong protesting for democracy. This bridge was built on hope, welded with compassion, and elevated by love for all human beings.”

           

To hear Common & John Legend’s acceptance speech, visit: 

 

 

PS: As far this critic’s Oscar predictions, I got 18 of 21 correct, including all the major categories. Not quite the perfect score of a year ago, but pretty impressive nevertheless, if I must say so myself. 

 

 

Complete List of Oscar Winners

 

Picture: Birdman

Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)

Original Screenplay: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo (Birdman)

Foreign Language Feature: Ida

Animated Feature: Big Hero 6

Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Song: “Glory” (Selma)

Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Sound Mixing: Whiplash

Sound Editing: American Sniper
Film Editing: Whiplash

Visual Effects: Interstellar
Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Cinematography: Birdman
Live Action Short Film: The Phone Call — Matt Kirkby and James Lucas

Animated Short Film: Feast

Documentary Short Film: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 

[Delano]

Will give second pucks for next awards

Interesting we both git the animation wrong

[Delano]

Thanks Troy I think. What's the next awards show?

[Troy]

Del I'm the wrong one to ask about awards shows.  Kam emails me information on these things.  

 

Think about it, if it were not for the film Selma I would have no reason to cover the Academy Awards at all.  I have been covering the film's director, Ava DuVernay since her first film.

 

Now where I do need some help.  Is for the NAACP Basketball tournament, more commonly known as March Madness. Many people bet on this.  There are 67 games and it is single elimination, which makes it very difficult for anyone to pick them all correctly.  In fact many so called basketball experts picks are often worse than people you rarely watch. 

[Cynique]

I watched the show because I'm a glutton for punishment. In an attempt to compensate for its snubbing people of color, the Academy via its prissy MC, Neil Patrick Harris, overcompensated and was slavishly patronzing, especialy when it came to Harris making Olivia Spencer a straight woman for his jokes by appointing her the insulting job of watching the ballot box. He also singled out Oprah Winfrey and David Oyelowo to poke fun at, in an akward attempt at flalttering them about her wealth and his British accent. 

 

As usual the acceptance speeches were too long, and the scripted exchanges between the presenters stilted and unfunny. What was up with Terrance Howard and his effusive flubbing of his lines?  And it's hard to believe that Eddie Murphy was once so funny.  Nowadays he is so dry and serious, as opposed to the manic Kevin Hart, who makes me what to reach for the can of bug spray.   

 

There was little suspense because all the predicted winners won. My rating: 21/2 stars.    

[Del]

Yeah Troy can't help you with the madness. Deep into a project. Will probable do a hundred charts. So it will take between 100 to 200 hundred hours. Cynique I was wondering where you were the last few days.

[Troy]

Yeah after the 3.5 hour Saturday night live show, I could not image watching 4+ hours of the Academy Awards.  The only clip from the show I've seen is the one I shared above.  While looking at Oprah and David Oyelowo's reaction to Common's acceptance speech, in the clip above, I could not help but think, "Oh Brother."   As pro-Black as I am, I just can't be as moved as they appear to be by these things.  

 

I guess that is what they call "hate."  But this really is not about hate, it is more complex than that.  It just irks me that our validation must come from folks that have continuously demonstrated that they could give less about our creative output.  

 

We get all bent out of shape because Ava and David did not get a nomination--I say, so what!  We know those who vote on the Awards are predominantly middle aged/old white men--what do you expect?!  I have no patience for those who express outrage over this.

 

I have even less patience for the same individuals who do not value the acclaim that they get from their own community.  Do you know there are Black actors who will not grant indie black platforms interviews but will to white platforms.  As you might image I have personal experience with this and that names of these actors would surprise you.

 

One of things that made Muhammad Ali great was they he would make sure Black journalist had access to him. That type of consciousness is essentially dead today.  

 

How many people have I worked with and supported early in their careers that I lost access to after they "blew up." It is very sad.

 

Of course this is all about money. I get that, and maybe that is what makes all of this so frustrating as well as sad...

 

Cynique, you know I was thinking the same thing about Eddie Murphy after seeing him on the Saturday night live special--to the point of wondering if anything was wrong with him.  

 

That is too bad Del, March Madness can be quite lucrative ;-)

[Del]

Not worth the ensuing headache