Troy Posted September 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Del the last paragraph in the executive summary says: "In general, there is no direct means of translating quantitative measures of past performance into confident statements about fidelity of future climate projections. However, there is increasing evidence that some aspects of observed variability or trends are well correlated with inter-model differences in model projections for quantities such as Arctic summertime sea ice trends, snow albedo feedback, and the carbon loss from tropical land. These relationships provide a way, in principle, to transform an observable quantity into a constraint on future projections, but the application of such constraints remains an area of emerging research. There has been substantial progress since the AR4 in the methodology to assess the reliability of a multi-model ensemble, and various approaches to improve the precision of multi-model projections are being explored. However, there is still no universal strategy for weighting the projections from different models based on their historical performance." Which is a long winded way of saying they can't predict the weather with a high level of certainty, which is not exactly a revelation. Is it? I was interesting to see just how many factors they incorporated, many of which are man made, including land use, methane (farming), aerosol particles, carbon, etc into their models. The report is over 100 pages long and full of terms I'd need to look up to fulling understand. But skimming the graphs of the actual measurements collected they all have an upward trend. The report is not new and is missing most of the past decade. It is possible a similar report with up to date information might draw slightly different conclusions. Would you agree? It is not clear to me why you reject man made climate change based upon what you've read in this report. But if you have read the entire thing and understand it perhap you can shed some light based upon what it actually contained in the report and how it informs your decision to reject man made climate change as "fiction," in the same category as Santa. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Del Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 @Troy I am going to paraphrase the first sentence of your quote. There is no way to confidently use the projections to predict future climate. That being said invalidates the projections. Basically what they do saying is the predictions from the model dont match the actual observations. But we have high correlations on the models independent variable with the dependent variable. You are correct i am not a climatologist nor a meteorologist. However I am really good with statistics. The other issue is each model is good with predicting one variable let say sea levels. But there isn't one model that is inclusive. Which is why i stated there are about 20 models but only a handful work and not inclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Del Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 hours ago, Troy said: Del the last paragraph in the executive summary says: "In general, there is no direct means of translating quantitative measures of past performance into confident statements about fidelity of future climate projections. However, there is increasing evidence that some aspects of observed variability or trends are well correlated with inter-model differences in model projections for quantities such as Arctic summertime sea ice trends, snow albedo feedback, and the carbon loss from tropical land. These relationships provide a way, in principle, to transform an observable quantity into a constraint on future projections, but the application of such constraints remains an area of emerging research. There has been substantial progress since the AR4 in the methodology to assess the reliability of a multi-model ensemble, and various approaches to improve the precision of multi-model projections are being explored. However, there is still no universal strategy for weighting the projections from different models based on their historical performance." Which is a long winded way of saying they can't predict the weather with a high level of certainty, which is not exactly a revelation. Is it? I was interesting to see just how many factors they incorporated, many of which are man made, including land use, It is not clear to me why you reject man made climate change based upon what you've read in this report. But if you have read the entire thing and understand it perhap you can shed some light based upon what it actually contained in the report and how it informs your decision to reject man made climate change as "fiction," in the same category as Santa. Thanks. @Troy I did an analysis that spanned three centuries and taught myself some of the drivers of weather. This study didn't change my mind it's changing your mind. I have said to you repeatedly look at the numbers not what is being said and let's discuss that. It's only taken you four months. Instead of me explainging the models why not read the links i posted. Starting with 10 pro and cons concerning climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delano Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 17/08/2017 at 9:04 AM, Troy said: @Del, I was thinking about you the other day after listening to a video of someone explaining why people reject science and facts in favor of their own opinions when it comes to things like climate change, evolution, and religion. Unfortunately I can't find the video and it is not in my history. But here is a video you my find interesting, or not. Let me know. He may be good at physics but his argument is illogical. Nothing he says shows a link between temperature and weather. Notice he doesn't mention any data or models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Posted September 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 Oh I wasn't even aware that there were three centuries of weather data to collect. SO that is news to me. Granted you invested more time that I have in analysing the data, but that is not saying much because other than the data that you've shared i have not attempted to double check the findings of the world's climatologist. No scientist can predict the weather 24 hours from now with absolute certainty; nor will they say that they can. Predicting the Earth's climate 50 years from now is obviously much more difficult. @Del, we have hurricane Irma, the second strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, for which current models disagree where this monster of a storm will hit. They don't even say with certainty how strong it will be when it does hit. No one in their right mind will reject the storm potential impact. As a result people are preparing for it's impact--even though it might not hit them. Of course there are people who say that weathermen, suck at predicting the weather and that they have previously prepared for storms that they were warned about but never came. So why should they bother this time? Needless to say many people have lost their lives with the reasoning. In my mind Del your absolute rejection of global climate change is no different that the folks ignoring Irma's forecast and failing to prepare for it. However in this case it is not us who will suffer the consequences of failing to act, but our children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Del Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 Troy lets discuss numbers and models. Because that's is what the experts are using. You have studied more mathematics. Read the last report so we can in the words of Bill Nye study "relevant " facts. So after you put in the time to inform your opinion by having a rudimentary knowledge of weather. Then we can have an intelligent discussion. Although I don't think you have either the time or inclination to do so. There are too many illogical and contradictory statements by you. Perhaps someone else will pickup the baton. Which means this is my last response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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