Kalexander2 134 Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 Congressional impeachment before November, or mid-term voters at the polls, then impeachment by a Democratic majority in congress; Trump is toast before 2019. It'll be a miracle if he's not out of jail on bail pending trial on the new-year. Foriegn policy and trade appear to be his poison in Congress, dissatisfaction of everything else among voters of all the other parties. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 8, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/06/07/cozy-land-deals-meant-big-money-trump-family-and-friends/677126002/ A second wager I'll take it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 Impeachment does not mean removal from office. Bill Clinton was impeached, and he is revered today even his wife was almost elected president. Del I'll pass on the 2nd vote 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 I don't think I mentioned impeachment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 Nope Del you did not (that I recall). I'm just saying impeachment because K2 mentioned it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 Yes, Troy, that is true, is the 30/100% reason DT may remain in office after 2019, 70/100 he'll be removed before. It is quite possible impeachment only may be construed as satisfactory but is blood-in-the water for the Muller sharks. Impeachment will lead to indictment and removal. So I believe. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 Troy he will resign and spin it as a victory. Saying he could have been the best President in the history of the world. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, Delano said: he will resign and spin it as a victory. Saying he could have been the best President in the history of the world. That fit's DT's psychological profile, exactly; and it could either way which is another reason I give it 70% change he'll be out before 2019. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 In U.S. Supreme Court case Burdick v. United States, 1915; held that when a person accepts a pardon it is a legal admission of guilt. Trump would be admitting that he is guilty of whatever crimes he is ultimately charged with by the Department of Justice. If Trump is free from federal charges he can still be impeached. As many legal experts have said, the rules of evidence are different in an impeachment trial than in a criminal trial. This means that evidence a defense lawyer gets excluded in a trial would be admitted in an impeachment proceeding. Not only that, but after a pardon Trump could no longer invoke his 5th Amendment right against self-incrimination. He would have to testify against himself. Television ratings for a Trump impeachment trial where the rules of evidence don’t apply. The plaintiffs in such a trial would be the very Congress people who Trump has been insulting and abusing for years. They would be extremely vindictive and would bring up every nasty possible piece of evidence they could find to taint Trump’s reputation — and it would all be perfectly legal. “A person can’t be pardoned if they have done nothing wrong. If Trump were to pardon himself for obstruction of justice, he would be admitting that he obstructed justice. Congress would have no choice but to impeach him. The pardon is not a get out of jail free card. Legally the president can’t pardon himself according to the Department of Justice, but if Trump tried, he would be impeached.” In either case DT would be removed from office. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted June 10, 2018 Report Share Posted June 10, 2018 If my memory serves me correctly, someone here mentioned a June 15, 2018 event that appear to taking shape. It is possible that June 15, 2018 will be the day on which Paul Manafort begins spending the rest of his life behind bars. Donald Trump’s Campaign Manager, the person who sat next to Jared Kushner and Donald Trump, Jr. as they plotted with Russian spies to steal an American election, may begin a life sentence in a little over a week’s time. There are only three somewhat plausible reasons he won’t. First, there is the possibility that Manafort begins cooperating with the Special Counsel. Second, Donald Trump could pardon him at some point. Third, the judge could decide to allow Manafort to remain in home detention at the hearing on June 15. Let’s look at these possibilities—and their legal and political ramifications—one at a time. We’ll start with that third possibility. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 If Cohen gets arrested is Donald Trump safe? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/12/michael-cohen-donald-trump-ripped-paper-shredder Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Delano said: If Cohen gets arrested is Donald Trump safe? DT isn't if Cohen never gets (even) indicted. Besides, Cohen's too proud of status, lawyer and all to be disbarred for DT. I think he's playing a waiting game. For the best exit out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 @TroyCohen is going to flip very shortly. Like I was saying each month you become less certain about Trump's invincibility. It will conclude with his ouster. Or I should not practice political astrology. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Or maybe I should https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-cooperate-attorneys-leave-case/story?id=55861988 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted June 14, 2018 Report Share Posted June 14, 2018 Del you should widen your source of information everything you share just reinforces what you (what we all) want to believe). The reality is Trump is not going anywhere before the end of the year -- even if he is completely guilty. The wheels of justice turn slowly... if at all. Meanwhile time the Warner monopoly has been approved, net neutrality shut down, facebook owns social media and is working on destroying the rest of the web, and colin Kaepernick has been banned from playing football and no one cares 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2018 I will chill on the news. Let's see what July brings with Cohen and the Manafort court cases. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted June 14, 2018 Report Share Posted June 14, 2018 Seriously, listen to some right wing news sources -- you'd think 45 is up for a Nobel Peace prize and that the investigation is a witch hunt. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted June 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2018 Ha ha ha ha, No. I will wait until the next expose. If they use The RICO Act it is a wrap. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Which newspapers didn't say Trump is a threat to the press @Troy https://deadline.com/2018/08/donald-trump-attacks-newspapers-running-editorials-defending-free-press-senate-punches-back-1202446846/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 It's like watching the Big Bang in reverse. This is unprecedented. At this rate three months is plenty of time. Rule of Law and Constitutional Crisis are terms you will hear more often. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 are terms you will hear more often. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 OK we will see. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/18/us/politics/don-mcgahn-mueller-investigation.html?nl=top-stories&nlid=34985990ries&ref=headline https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/23/us/politics/trump-mueller-russia.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2018 The Washington Post says the next 11weeks will be critical to the Trump Presidency. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/08/20/the-most-intense-and-dangerous-period-of-the-trump-presidency-is-about-to-begin/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ddc4387c4803 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 21, 2018 Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 Del more opinions don't mean 45 will get the boot before the end if the year. Try watching Fox News or listening to right wing radio for a minute. That will temper your enthusiasm. I hear they want to make Australia great again too. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 How about convictions? Cohen is up next. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics/paul-manafort-trial-jury/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-22/ex-trump-lawyer-cohen-reaches-plea-deal-with-us-prosecutors/10150464 This just in @Troy Mr Cohen's lawyer Lanny Davis said Mr Trump directed Mr Cohen to commit a crime and should face criminal charges as a result, claiming in a statement on Twitter that "If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn't they be a crime for Donald Trump?" 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 22, 2018 Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 For the upteenth time, no one doubts that 45 has engaged in criminal activity. This issue, and the basis for our wager, is whether 45 will be removed from office by December 31, 2018, 11:59:59 p.m. The blow-by-blow has not showed anything to suggest that this will happen. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 Do you seriously think he will finish his term? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 22, 2018 Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 I'm not so sure about his term, though I think he has a better than 50-50 chance -- the outcome of midterms will be a good indicator. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted August 22, 2018 Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 9 hours ago, Troy said: blow-by-blow has not showed anything to suggest that this will happen. Troy, even the toughest of surfaces can take only so many blows before destruction; the Teflon Don isn't a tough surface. 5 hours ago, Troy said: better than 50-50 chance For now yes, I agree there's about 55-45% chance he'll remain throughout 2018, but all the blows yet to come, considering his apparent desperation as well as the GOP's logic, DT could be impeached and indicted before 2019, resign, or drop dead from a heart attack. Yeah, about 55-45% chance, for now, matters are increasingly eating away at his chance of making it through 2019. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 @Troyat one point you said he would be re-elected, then it went to finishing his term, now you are not so sure. In a month you may think his chances of finishing the year are lower. In March he was the Teflon Don not so much now. Every month the case against him gets stronger. Lets see what surprises September brings. I will say it again. This is an astrological prediction. When i said he would be out by the end of the year you said impossible. It's looking more possible. Keep watching. Let's see what Michael Cohen gives up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cynique 2,308 Posted August 23, 2018 Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Delano said: ...Every month yhe case against him gets stronger. Lets see what surprises September brings. I will say it again. Yhus us an astrological prediction. When i said he would be out by the end of the year you said impossible. It's looking more possible. Keep watching. Let's see what Michael Cohen gives u Some political pundits are reporting that cooler heads are backing off bringing impeachment proceedings against Trump, because the offenses he's accused of might not rise to the level of being illegal, allowing the Republican senate to dismiss charges. thereby enabling Trump to emerge stronger than ever. Mid-term elections and a 2020 defeat seems to be the most expedient goals. None of this is about guilt or innocence any more, because it's in the realm of possibility that the president will pardon himself, and there is nothing anyone can do about this without creating chaos. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 Constitutional Crisis and Rule of Law remember those terms. That's why Mueller is following the money. Every month that passes you are less certain. The other big indicator is that Trump is quiet. Search Don McGahn I am sure some of you don't know who he is . Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 23, 2018 Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 Gee Del I have access to new information and I have changed my position. I know you are very rigid in your stances, dig in, and don't change your mind without a great deal of resistance. That said, there is nothing that has been written, or said by any reasonable person, to suggest that 45 will be booted from office before the end of the year. Nothing will happen before the midterms and even if they started the process of booting 45, it will can not be completed before the end of the year. What is so hard to understand? Your $50 is a money n my bank right now (your's too @Kalexander2)... like taking candy from a baby 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kalexander2 134 Posted August 23, 2018 Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 39 minutes ago, Cynique said: cooler heads are backing off bringing impeachment proceedings against Trump, because the offenses he's accused of might not rise to the level of being illegal Yes, sister but the stakes have risen now; I too suggested that the solution rested with Congress and DOJ, not anymore. NY State Penal Code Article 20 (can now) place the matter in hands of NY State and local authorities due to Cohen's admissions and implication of the President in high crimes. If for nothing more than indicting DT's family members, which have the possibility of forcing him to resign. Congress, DT, nor the US Constitution forbid NY from pursuing investigations and indictments. 17 minutes ago, Troy said: Your $50 is a money n my bank right now (your's too @Kalexander2)... like taking candy from a baby Maybe, but the bank isn't open yet, and this isn't babies eating candy. Chances of you winning gentlemen's contest are being slowly eroded by new developments every day, every hour even. Paul Ryan and the GOP are up against the wall right now, criminal as they all are, their self-preservation is imminent, for the sake of their party. Indeed, any reasonable person would allow concession for what probability of all things considered possible. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 Troy you are missing one not so minor point. In this discussion your position is a function of the news while mine is astrological. So over time your position is becoming closer to mine. So my information seemso a bit more predictive than yours. The beauty is that on March not many people believed or thought Trump would finish his term. I enjoy taking a contrary position that is a bit ahead of the curve. That is becoming self evident. Tell me how certain you are after Cohen gets sentenced in September. Search Don McGahn @Troy Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Delano 1,190 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 hours ago, Troy said: Gee Del I have access to new information and I have changed my position. I know you are very rigid in your stances, dig in, and don't change your mind without a great deal of resistance. You mean like when I am right and you are slowly changing your mind , in the face of overwhelming evidence. Perhaps what you see as resistance is thinking. Try it from time to time. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Troy 2,755 Posted August 23, 2018 Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 Actually Del, my position is really more a function of my faith (or lack thereof) in the system of justice. I have not really been following the news. I try to moderate the noise on Trump that I consume, but this is difficult to do. The only articles I've read are the ones you've posted links to. Sure if I change my mind and it happens to be in line with a position you've always had, that is fine with me Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cynique 2,308 Posted August 23, 2018 Report Share Posted August 23, 2018 To trust in the idea that that those in power will adhere to the truth and obey the law is no longer a valid stance! That's the bizarre crazy thing about the Trump political charade. He and his supporters have created an alternative reality. Rudy Guilliani, with a straight face, said in a interview that the truth is not the truth. Trump has told his followers to not believe what they see, to just ignore what the evil press reports. The term "Fake News" is effectively used to squelch any challenges to his lies because of the public distrust of the media. His spokespeople abound in specious arguments, offering plausible reasons for the actual reasons. They revel in deceptive semantics and engage in double-speak. Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders has become an expert at evading the facts. She utters nothing but empty words arranged in vacant phrases. They all operate on the principle that if they say something is true, that makes it so. Simply contradicting a fact is their way of dismissing what is so blatantly apparent. Currently Trump is introducing the idea of shutting down Mueller's probe, insisting it is nothing but a waste of time - a witch hunt with no merit. Nobody has the influence to prevent him from trying to interfere in this investigation. Discrediting witnesses who turn against him also works for him because they are all crooks like him who don't inspire trust. He turns villains into heroes and vice versa. He is co-opting the office of the presidency right before our eyes as he takes on the mantel of a dictator placing himself above the law, ready and willing to pardon his guilty cohorts. And himself. And as long as Republicans put their personal interests before the good of their country, very little can be done to put an end to Trump's disregard for the Constitution as he prepares to ram through yet another Supreme Court Justice lackey. Meanwhile, his nation-wide support remains solid in the 30 per cent range. Higher among Republicans. Elsewhere, the Democrats have no muscles to flex in this struggle. Yes, the majority of Americans disapprove of Trump, but they justifiably feel helpless inasmuch as even the ballot box is not immune to the devious dishonest tactics that fuel this presidency. And of course the booming economy works in Trump's favor as the long, drawn-out Mueller hearings are becoming bogged down with disinterest on the part of the public. Admittedly, i am a pessimist, which is why I stand by my belief that the only way Trump will leave office before 2020 is, in an attack of conscience, he steps down before his first term is over, for the good of the country. I hope i am wrong, and the only problem i will have if i am wrong, is that Pence will then be in a position to led this nation toward a theocratic oligarchy. If Trump does get kicked out of office, i do hope it will be within the next year because at my age, i could go at any time and miss this world-shattering event! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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